Leadership Briefing: 10 August 2026
What this week's policy thinking means for leaders
Each week brings a new mix of data, research and policy announcements. On their own, they may focus on the economy, workforce trends, productivity, technology or government policy. Viewed together, however, they often point to broader shifts that leaders need to understand.
This week’s picture is clear: organisations are expected to deliver more in an environment that is harder to predict and increasingly constrained. Rising costs and fragile supply chains continue to test resilience, while a cautious jobs market makes it even more important to attract, retain and develop talent. AI could help address stubborn productivity problems, but only if organisations rethink how work gets done rather than simply layering new technology onto existing processes.
Reports and publications worth exploring
1. Businesses remain concerned about rising costs and supply chain risks
The latest ONS Business Insights and Conditions Survey shows that cost and supply chain pressures remain a serious concern. In late July, 57% of businesses were worried about energy prices and 60% about fuel prices. International conflict affecting supply chains concerned 29%, while 20% pointed to shipping disruption. Among businesses experiencing supply chain issues, more than half expected materials to cost more and 47% anticipated higher transport costs.
International trade is also becoming more expensive. Among businesses with 10 or more employees that had exported during the previous 12 months, 39% said their exporting costs were higher in June than a year earlier - the largest share recorded since June 2023.
The practical point is to look beyond today’s financial pressures. Geopolitical uncertainty, energy costs and supply chain disruption should all form part of conversations about resilience, pricing and strategic choices.
Read more: Business insights and impact on the UK economy, Office for National Statistics
2. A "low hire, low fire" labour market
Analysis from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) describes the UK as having a “low hire, low fire” labour market. Employers are cautious about both taking people on and reducing headcount. Unemployment remains relatively stable, but weaker recruitment and rising economic inactivity suggest that momentum is fading.
The real leadership question is what happens between recruitment and redundancy. When opportunities to bring in new skills are limited, retaining and developing the people already in the organisation matters more. With wage growth also expected to slow, capability and progression need to be treated as strategic priorities, not simply HR matters.
Read more: A Low Hire, Low Fire Labour Market, NIESR
3. Public service productivity continues to recover
New ONS figures show total public service productivity rising by 0.9% in 2025, after growth of 0.7% in 2024. Output grew faster than inputs, indicating that services delivered more relative to the resources used. Even so, productivity was still 2.5% below its pre-pandemic level in 2019. Healthcare followed a similar pattern where productivity rose by 1% in 2025 but remained 5.8% below 2019.
The direction of travel is encouraging, but the underlying challenge has not gone away. Public services are still being asked to achieve more with limited resources, so lasting improvement will depend on how well people, processes and technology work together.
Read more: Public Service Productivity Report, Office for National Statistics
4. Early signs that AI is boosting productivity
New Bank of England analysis offers early evidence that AI is starting to support UK productivity growth. So far, though, the gains are concentrated in the sectors developing AI rather than those adopting it. Computer programming and consultancy, for instance, increased its contribution to annual productivity growth tenfold between the periods studied.
The UK may still be at the beginning of the AI productivity cycle. Wider benefits are likely to follow as organisations reshape their processes and working practices around the technology. Simply introducing AI will not be enough because the bigger gains are likely to come from redesigning the work itself.
Read more: Blog from Sandra Batten, Senior Economist, Bank of England
5. Global Talent visa opens to more businesses
The UK Government has widened the Global Talent visa route, enabling more than 100 research-intensive companies to support leading international scientists and engineers coming to the UK. The endorsed funder route was previously aimed largely at universities and research institutions. Newly eligible employers include AstraZeneca, Jaguar Land Rover, GSK and Arm, as well as smaller research-led businesses.
This gives innovative businesses a stronger route to highly skilled international talent, particularly in AI, life sciences, advanced manufacturing, clean energy and quantum technologies. It also signals how central global expertise has become to the UK’s ambitions for innovation and growth.
Read more: Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade, GOV.UK
Leadership takeaway
At first glance, this week’s headlines cover economics, productivity, technology and immigration. Beneath them sits a more fundamental question: how can organisations build the capability and resilience to perform when the outlook is unpredictable?
There is no simple answer. Leaders cannot set energy prices, remove geopolitical uncertainty, control the labour market or determine the pace of technological change. They can shape their organisation’s response by making better use of existing talent, investing in development rather than relying only on recruitment, redesigning work as technology evolves and factoring resilience into strategic decisions.
The productivity data is especially revealing. Public service performance is improving but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, while AI is beginning to show measurable benefits. Technology on its own will not deliver the transformation organisations need. The greater opportunity comes from pairing it with better processes, capable leadership and people who have the skills and confidence to use it well.
The clearest message this week may be that leadership capability is itself becoming a vital source of resilience. Organisations that invest in their people, adapt the way work is done and make confident decisions will be better equipped for whatever comes next.
